"Three Major Indices Fluctuate Downwards, Face Short-Term Volatility"

Analysis suggests that although the market may face volatility in the short term, the bull market trend is still ongoing from a medium to long-term perspective.

Today (October 15th), the three major A-share indices fluctuated and fell. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.53%, and the ChiNext Index plummeted by 3.22%. Approximately 4,300 individual stocks declined across the two markets, with a total transaction volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan.

In terms of market sectors, all sectors saw a general decline, with diversified finance, securities firms, and oil sectors leading the losses; the defense and military sector performed slightly stronger, with stocks like Huali Chuantong and Leidian Weili hitting the daily limit.

Regarding transaction volumes, the combined turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets for the whole day was 1634.78 billion yuan, marking the 7th consecutive trading day surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan, but a decrease of 2.05 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Specifically, the Shanghai market's turnover was 619.091 billion yuan (the previous trading day was 701.499 billion yuan), with a trading volume of 566 million shares (the previous trading day was 631 million shares); the Shenzhen market's turnover was 1015.689 billion yuan (the previous trading day was 933.486 billion yuan), with a trading volume of 801 million shares (the previous trading day was 768 million shares). Runhe Software led in transaction volume with 25.388 billion yuan. Followed by Dongfang Fortune, Ruan Tong Power, Changshan Beiming, and SMIC, with transaction volumes of 23.639 billion yuan, 13.608 billion yuan, 12.157 billion yuan, and 10.801 billion yuan, respectively.

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In terms of capital flow, today's net outflow of main funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 69.878 billion yuan, accounting for 4.27%; the net outflow of large order funds was 36.546 billion yuan, accounting for 2.24%; the net inflow of small order funds was 52.690 billion yuan, accounting for 3.22%.

Hua Jin Securities analysis believes that the A-share market, under the active promotion of policies, although the fundamental repair still needs to be verified, the medium and long-term bull market trend has not ended. In the short term, policies remain active, and external risks are relatively small, providing support for the market. Looking back at historical trends, after A-shares experience an increase in volume and rise, they often enter a period of fluctuation and consolidation before continuing to rise. Hua Jin Securities believes that the continuous efforts of policies have brought about an improvement in the credit environment, which will help to further enhance the valuation of A-shares. Although the market may face fluctuations in the short term, from a medium to long-term perspective, the bull market trend is still ongoing. The market's future trend is worth maintaining an optimistic attitude under the background of policy promotion and credit recovery.

The first batch of 10 CSI A500 ETFs started trading today

It is worth noting that the first batch of 10 CSI A500 ETFs officially started trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges today, with a total fundraising scale of 20 billion yuan. The uniqueness of this ETF lies in that it covers the 500 largest market value stocks across the entire market, while combining ESG standards and the screening requirements of interconnectivity, possessing the dual characteristics of core leading enterprises and industry balanced allocation. Industry insiders believe that the CSI A500 Index is expected to achieve dual-wheel drive of core assets and new quality productive forces, providing a stable growth momentum for the future market.

ETF trading has gradually become a popular choice for investors, especially novice investors. According to data, since the National Day holiday, the proportion of new account investors holding ETFs has significantly increased, reaching 20 to 30%, showing that the popularity and appeal of ETFs are continuously increasing. The main ETF products favored include Sci-Tech Innovation 50, Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, ChiNext, Sci-Tech Chip, Dividend ETF, and Securities ETF, etc. The increase in holding ratios also reflects investors' recognition of ETF products, especially for inexperienced novices, ETFs have become an ideal investment tool due to their characteristics of risk diversification and lower costs.

In addition, the scale of market equity ETFs has reached 3 trillion yuan, a trend that has benefited from the popularization of investor education and increased awareness of ETF products. Securities firms also regard ETFs as a strategic focus and provide targeted services based on the dynamic needs of customers, further promoting the growth of ETF trading and holdings. For both experienced investors and novices, the advantages of ETFs in cost-effectiveness, risk diversification, and long-term investment value make them a popular choice in the current market.Brokerage Perspective: The Market is Transitioning from a "Market Bottom" to an "Earnings Bottom"

Analysis from Guojin Securities indicates that as fiscal policy takes effect, the balance sheets of residents and businesses are expected to see significant improvement, which will provide support for consolidating the "market bottom." Based on the current market environment, Guojin maintains an optimistic view of the current rebound trend, advising investors to take advantage of low positions and focus on the "technology > consumption" sector.

Specifically, since late September, there has been an increase in positive factors at the macro level, including the monetary policy combination on September 24th, the Politburo meeting at the end of September, and the gradual implementation of this fiscal policy. These positive policy signals, especially the emphasis on investment in assets, salaries, and employment, are expected to drive market expectations to warm up and effectively improve the balance sheets of residents. However, Guojin also points out that it will take time for macro policies to be transmitted to the improvement of fundamental data, and the "earnings bottom" is expected to appear in the third quarter of 2025. Before that, the market will be in a phase of transitioning from a "market bottom" to an "earnings bottom," with the rise in the market mainly driven by liquidity and market sentiment.

Guojin further analyzes that if future fiscal policy efforts can be more concentrated on key areas such as investment and employment, corporate profitability is expected to improve ahead of schedule, and this will drive the start of a long-term "reversal" trend in the market. In terms of industry allocation, Guojin continues to recommend growth sectors with mid-cap, oversold, low valuation, and potential for dividend rate revision, especially those growth stocks with a high proportion of repurchase plan scale. These companies are expected to enhance shareholder returns through buybacks and benefit from the recovery of market sentiment.