Supply and Demand Drive Record Foreign Trade High

On October 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, introduced: "Since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has been generally stable and advancing steadily, with new quality productive forces accelerating the formation, high-quality development being deeply promoted, and the stable growth of goods import and export, with the continuous optimization of foreign trade structure." In the first three quarters, the total value of China's goods trade import and export was 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Among them, exports were 18.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%; imports were 13.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1%.

In the first, second, and third quarters, imports and exports all exceeded 10 trillion yuan

Wang Lingjun said that this year, China's total import and export value has reached a new high, with the total value of the first three quarters breaking through 32 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with each quarter being 10.15 trillion, 11 trillion, and 11.17 trillion yuan, all exceeding 10 trillion yuan, which is also a first in history. This year, there are many aspects of import and export that are worth paying attention to.

Advertisement

All types of business entities remain active. Private enterprises have achieved rapid growth. In the first three quarters, private enterprises' import and export value was 17.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%, accounting for 55% of the total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points; foreign-invested enterprises' import and export value was 9.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%, and growth for two consecutive quarters.

Market diversification is steadily advancing. In the first three quarters, China's import and export value to countries participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative was 15.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3%, with the proportion rising to 47.1%; the import and export value to other member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was 9.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.5%, among which the import and export value to ASEAN was 5.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%. This year, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has expanded. After the expansion, the BRICS countries' share of global trade has exceeded 1/5, and their international influence has further expanded. In the first three quarters, China's import and export value to other BRICS countries was 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%. In the industrial field, China and other BRICS countries have fully utilized their comparative advantages in intermediate products, achieving complementarity in basic industrial fields such as steel, chemical, and textile. In the agricultural field, the advantageous agricultural products of China and other BRICS countries have met each other's diversified needs, and there has been frequent trade in agricultural machinery and agricultural materials.

The export product structure is optimized. In the first three quarters, the export value of mechanical and electrical products was 11.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of the total export value. Among them, the export value of high-end equipment increased by 43.4%, and the export value of integrated circuits, automobiles, and household appliances increased by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.

Both supply and demand have driven the stable growth of China's import and export

Wang Lingjun said that this year, China's import and export can maintain stable growth, which depends on both supply and demand.

In terms of demand, internationally, the latest WTO report has raised the forecast for the growth rate of goods trade volume for the whole year. Institutions such as the World Bank and the OECD believe that the global economy is stabilizing, and the recovery of external demand has created favorable conditions for China's exports. In the first three quarters, China's exports to traditional markets such as Europe, America, and Japan increased by 4.2%, and exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America increased by 12.3% and 13.7%, respectively. Domestically, since the beginning of this year, China's industrial production has been growing steadily, driving the import volume of coal, natural gas, and iron ore in the first three quarters to increase by 11.9%, 13%, and 4.9%, respectively. With the cyclical upturn of the consumer electronics industry, the import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits, and flat panel display modules has all achieved double-digit growth. The consumer market continues to grow steadily, with the import of specialty fruits, wine, and clothing increasing by 7.1%, 28.9%, and 6.1%, respectively, effectively meeting the diversified domestic consumer demand.

In terms of supply, China is currently accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, and the trend of high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is very obvious. Innovation has made "Made in China" more widely favored. In terms of high-end, "Made in China" has shown strong strength. For example, recently, China exported the world's largest production and storage oil platform, with a unit price exceeding 10 billion yuan. According to the displacement calculation, it is equivalent to the displacement of 5 aircraft carriers, which represents the highest level of global offshore equipment. In terms of intelligence, a large number of intelligent home appliances such as intelligent sweeping robots that can sweep, wash, and drag at the same time, and fully automatic coffee machines that can make more than ten flavors by themselves are popular among overseas customers. In the first three quarters, the export of household appliances increased by 15.5%. In terms of greening, China's new energy industry has effectively connected with the global green development trend, with the export of wind turbine groups and electric vehicles increasing by 73.9% and 22%, respectively.Export growth slowed in September, which is a normal short-term data fluctuation

"In September, China's exports amounted to 2.17 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth rate, but it is a normal short-term data fluctuation, mainly influenced by some short-term accidental factors," said Lu Dalian, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistical Analysis Department.

Firstly, there is a certain relationship with extreme weather. Two typhoons landed in the Yangtze River Delta region in September, and after the typhoons, the scheduling of fleets is often postponed, leading to a delay in exports. Secondly, due to the recent global shipping congestion, shortage of containers, and the expiration of contracts for dockworkers on the East Coast of the United States, the pace of enterprises' shipments and logistics has been adjusted. In addition, the export scale base in September last year was relatively high, which also restricted the year-on-year growth rate in September this year.

Lu Dalian said that according to the latest data released by various economic entities, China's overall exports accounted for a stable and rising share of the global market, and exports still have strong resilience. A recent survey of more than 800 major export enterprises showed that 69% of the enterprises reported that exports in the fourth quarter were flat or increased.

The data also showed that since July, China's import scale has expanded month by month, with September being the highest point of the year, with a month-on-month increase of 2%. In September, the import volumes of coal, natural gas, and integrated circuits increased by 13%, 19%, and 17%, respectively, reflecting the continuous recovery of domestic demand.

Regarding the next trend, Wang Lingjun analyzed that the current external environment is becoming more complex and severe. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is lower than the average level of the first 20 years of this century. In addition, some countries frequently take trade restrictive measures against China's products, and some fluctuations have also appeared in the main economic indicators such as domestic industry, investment, and consumption in recent times, which also brings certain pressure to the development of foreign trade. However, the basic situation of China's economic development has not changed, and the favorable conditions such as large market potential and strong economic resilience have not changed. Recently, various departments and regions are accelerating the comprehensive implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, actively introducing a package of incremental policies to support the healthy development of the real economy and business entities. "With the coordinated efforts of policies, China's economy will continue to stabilize and improve, and we have the conditions and confidence to achieve the goal of improving the quality and stabilizing the quantity of foreign trade throughout the year," Wang Lingjun said.